The Smartest Decision You Probably are Avoiding, A Tribute to Annie Duke's Quit

In my view, Annie Duke’s Quit is one of the most important books I’ve read on decision-making.

It blends decision science with psychological clarity and feels less like a strategy and more like a life skill handbook. She say, what if sometimes the smartest, bravest decision is to walk away?

In the books she challenges one of the deepest biases we carry: that endurance is always virtue. It offers one of the clearest frameworks I’ve encountered on when, and why, letting go can be the wisest decision of all.

Expected Value: The Real Decision-Making Lens

At the heart of Quit is the idea of Expected Value (EV).

EV = (Probability of upside × Size of upside) - (Probability of downside × Size of downside)

If the expected value of continuing is negative, you should quit. Even if you’ve invested years. Even if others expect you to stay.

Good decision-makers aren't those who endure the longest. They are those who know when future upside no longer justifies the present cost. Persistence is only a virtue when the future value supports it.

The Everest Tragedy: When Persistence Became Fatal

One of the most real examples Annie shares is from the 1996 Everest disaster.

Several climbers were just 300 feet from the summit. They had planned for years. Tied their identity to climb the Everest.

But they ignored something, a cut-off point, a pre-agreed quitting points set to ensure safety. However they kept going. And didn’t make it back.

t was the tragedy of too much commitment, applied after the window for reason had closed. Annie calls it escalation of commitment, when we let past investment and emotional identity overpower new reality.

Emily Hughes, Choosing a New Identity

Contrast that with the story of Emily Hughes, the Olympic figure skater.

After competing in the 2006 Olympics, she trained fiercely for a comeback toward the 2010 Games. But somewhere along the way, she chose differently.

She quit. Not because she couldn't compete. But because she realized her life could be bigger than one identity.

She pivoted toward education, toward new ambitions, toward a life beyond the rink.

Annie frames Emily’s decision as something rarely celebrated:

The courage to stop investing in a goal that no longer aligned with your broader future.

Quitting wasn’t a betrayal of effort. It was a recognition of opportunity cost.

Stewart Butterfield, Quitting Glitch to Build Slack

In her book she also shares the story of Stewart Butterfield, co-founder of Flickr and later Slack, to illustrate how quitting can be a strategic move rather than a failure.

Butterfield initially worked on a gaming project called Glitch. The game failed to gain the expected traction. Recognizing the diminishing returns and low expected value of continuing, Butterfield made the tough decision to shut down Glitch.

However, hist team at Glitch had created an internal communication tool to collaborate more effectively. Seeing that as the future potential, Butterfield pivoted to develop this tool into what we now know as Slack, a leading communication platform.

Expected Value, Through a Human Lens

Expected Value isn’t just math. It’s deeply human.

Annie invites us to ask

• If I were making this choice fresh today, would I still choose it?

• Am I staying because of the future, or because of sunk costs and fear?

• What opportunity am I losing by staying committed to a diminishing bet?

In a world that praises sticking it out Expected Value thinking recentres the decision on thoughtful design

The Smartest Decision You’re Avoiding

Sometimes the bravest move isn’t to keep going. It’s to walk away while you still have choices worth making. Persistence without reflection can become its own form of blindness.

“Grit is only a virtue when it’s applied to the right things.” -Annie Duke, Quit

Decision Design Lab and SelfSignal

At Decision Design Lab, I believe that decision making should be a discipline taught, practiced, reflected upon, not left to impulse or traditions.

That’s why I am building

• Learning modules rooted in behavioural science and decision design.

• Case studies that reframe real-world decision dilemmas.

• Online and Offliine engagements

• SelfSignal is a structured reflection tool to help leaders and individuals track how their clarity, confidence, and alignment evolve over time.

SelfSignal doesn't interfere in your decision making, It helps you detect whether your internal compass is still aligned with where you want to go.

Because clarity isn't just about better answers. It's about asking yourself the right questions before you're too far from home.

In Conclusion

The smartest decision you’re avoiding might not be whether to persist harder. It might be whether you’re still on the path that deserves your best energy.

Would love to hear your view on it.

Anshuman Bajpai-Founder, Decision Design Lab